I Think the Right Will Split...Hard
On election night, I posted that "Hispanics/Latinos Won". Now everyone - including Romney's staff - is chalking up Romney's loss to his immigration stance.
But I haven't seen anyone hitting upon my other point - that we are about to see both parties falling over each other to push through generous immigration reform, and to reach out, generally, to Hispanic and Asian immigrants. It will be a tremendous shift.
But xenophobic blue collar whites aren't going to like it much. So I'll make another prediction: a third party will arise to channel their fury. Like the various European ultra-nationalist parties, it won't be pretty (and it won't win many elections). It will embolden and amplify the very worst outlying elements of the current Republican base, and make the ire of the Tea Party seem mild by comparison. But it will at last finally drive the mainstream Republican party back toward the center/right.
The pendulum of the right has over-swung too far to simply swing back again. Rather, my guess is that it will split. And the portion that swings toward still farther extremes will, I'm afraid, break some windows.
Saturday, January 9, 2016
My 2012 Prediction for a Split Right
I'd like to do a victory lap regarding something I posted in November 2012. The split has certainly happened, windows are indeed being broken, and while it hasn't yet spurred a third party, it almost doesn't need to, as establishment Republicans watch the current scene with horror (much like watching the trajectory of all those Afghan Mujahideen we once trained and armed).
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