I actually disagree with Nichols' central shtick; as the author of "The Death of Expertise," he's crustily sick and tired of know-nothings spouting off on stuff they know nothing about and people like him know tons about.Tom's latest bugaboo is great. He's on a tear about wealthy, comfortable, privileged people (and you, yes you, are unfathomably wealthy, comfortable, and privileged) who rant about how everything sucks and it's all getting worse and we're living in hell....when we're all unfathomably wealthy and comfortable and privileged.
It goes without saying that society is in the midst of a Dunning Kruger jubilee, where even our uplifting credos ("Keepin' it real", "You go girl"; etc.) seem to encourage blindly uninformed willfulness. But while a consensus of experts is a compelling thing, usually best deferred to (I'm talking to you, climate change deniers and anti-vaxxers), the problem is that individual experts disagree. All the time. Whatever you think, there's a bona fide expert to back you up. And even consensus shifts around aimlessly (saturated fat was helping us, then killing us, then helping us again, then killing us again). So my expertise doesn't make me right, nor you wrong. If you don't like my favorite taco shack, that's perfectly ok.
Watch him fence with hot-heads, infuriated by his patriarchal something something complacency, as he effortlessly drops bodies one after another:
I spend a lot of time defending the elites, because they created a global system of peace and prosperity, and raised living standards in ways people don't understand even as they benefit from them.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
But Jill Abramson's kind of elitism is easy to reject.
Sure. Look out your window.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Then go to the supermarket and buy some fresh fruit in the dead of winter.
Then get on a plane and go wherever you'd like.
Transfer some money on your smartphone and use an ATM when you get where you're going. /1 https://t.co/50fWvQbxLn
And if your kids are worried about you, send them an email on your phone or laptop.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Then Uber it back to the airport.
Then go home in get in a car that would be considered a luxury vehicle full of miracles just 30 years ago.
Then watch one of the 100+ plus chans on your TV. /2
Meanwhile, if you don't feel well, take one of the 300,000 perfectly safe meds Westerners take every day.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Then turn up the heat in your house, which might be from any number of sources.
First, pick up a bag of perfectly safe food and beverages from around the world. /3
Of course, you could also change into a comfy sweater, made in any number of countries and now available to you at cheap prices.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Then pop a beer and realize you live a safer, longer, healthier life than most humans in history have ever known. /4
The fact that you think it's "normal everyday stuff" is why you're too dumb and spoiled to get how much effort it took on the part of a lot of people a lot smarter than you to make it all happen. https://t.co/ON1HlWvRxu
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
That is always true, and a good point: any one story of human misery does not invalidate the trend of less human misery. In 25 years, people in deep poverty around the world has dropped from about 40 percent to less than 20 percent. That's...amazing. https://t.co/t7L6H2J86f
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
It’s hard to explain this to a generation of affluent people who think “poverty“ means “one TV” https://t.co/wend6qKsz3
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Before deregulation fewer than 20% of adult Americans had ever been on an airplane. That figure is now about 85%. But yes, everything is worse now than it’s ever been before, and it’s just getting worse by the minute, and the Revolution will storm business class to Orlando. https://t.co/z2dwOwqUwa
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
1. US and world safer than ever
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
2. Free high school is universal in the West
3. More healthcare (but not *insurance*) and better than any time in US history.
It is so tiring to see so many people wedded to the “it’s never been worse” narrative. https://t.co/d9zypoZvx7
That’s already happening. But I do not grieve that Bill Gates is fantastically more wealthy than I am. If you want to reform the political system, I’m with you. If you want to gripe about rich people, count me out. https://t.co/t2alrxD5JZ
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Go back to 1970 and get sick. Call me if you make it. https://t.co/R8oErVXpBN
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
The people in my timeline using advanced technology and a global communications network to bitch about how awful life is don’t seem to have any memory of this. I do. Also, of any number of medical conditions being an instant death sentence. https://t.co/dLV3kCWL2x
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
But those were better days because the globalist elites something something https://t.co/K3bcDJRdzD
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Of course it's the perceived unfairness. That's why I say: I care about poverty. I care nothing about relative deprivation. If the argument is that we have to buy off some of it with taxes, well, okay, but it's not because we're addressing poverty. https://t.co/S2x2ktIP9d
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
It's also been shattered by affluence, even among the working class, that encourages daily TV, home entertainment, and a general solipsism instead of the group activities that used to take place weekly or monthly. https://t.co/Q4m0W0n0s7
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
Says the guy complaining to me using a technology developed by some of the most insanely wealthy people in history.
— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) February 10, 2019
One way your life is better is that you can come here and bitch and vent instead of yelling at your wife and dog while throwing beer cans at the TV. https://t.co/ItrOvo991H
We are so phenomenally spoiled that we confuse discomfort with poverty, and this has kindled a movement on the extreme left (which encompasses a whopping slice of young people), that I've dubbed Liberal Materialism, which uses Marxist constructs and revolutionary zeal to furiously and unashamedly demand unfettered access for all to the fruits of extreme consumerism. I characterized it this way:
We fight not for bread and shelter for the disadvantaged, like our righteous forebears, but for their right to smart watches and Beemers. The have-obscenely-much will be compelled to share their Riedel stemware with the have-slightly-less-obscenely-much. Vive la revolution!Anyway...
Here are some more contrasts between Then and Now I came up with:
Cars never stall (i.e. they “just work”), don’t need to be warmed up, are almost never broken into, and last twice as long.
No gross haze of leaded fuel fumes and cigarette smoke.
It’s vanishingly unlikely you’ll ever be punched in the mouth, even if you’re an insufferable asshole.
Most people are anti-war, whereas that was once a weirdo minority with a semi-derogatory title: “pacifists” (when was the last time you even heard the term?).
The experience of “getting lost” feels like a freaky, outrageous edge case. I used to spend as much time dealing with being lost as I did trying to hunt down facts at the library or looking for a payphone (or for change for the payphone).
Television is a vast portal of endless rich inspiration.
Nobody gets headaches anymore (since bottled water). We were absolutely plagued with them before (I don't mean migraines).
Food that’s better than basic nourishment for under $$$, and waiters who don’t scowl if you’re not wearing expensive shoes.
Sushi, spicy food, fresh vegetables; espresso and lattes; organics; and Thai, Mexican, and (authentic) Chinese restaurants.
All human knowledge, media, products, and music plus infinite free worldwide communication on a slab of glass in your pocket.
Nice wood floors; not always crappy synthetic carpeting everywhere.
Thinking of more: Just try to adopt a rescue dog without going through a screening process sometimes involving home visits where all family members and other pets must be present. I didn't have to go through quite that much but I did pay a non-refundable hundred and fifty dollars and provide references. I'm guessing they called my vet because they did interview my friend over the phone. But my nippy eight year old male chichuaha mix is snoring on my lap and wearing his belly band. Another crazy good invention that saves the lives of pissy poorly trained male doggies,
ReplyDeleteThe world is overall getting better. Yet, in some ways the world is becoming worse. I'll list a few ways the world is nicer today.
ReplyDeleteDentists are much more available, my father got his baby teeth pulled by pliers when he had a cavity. Physical abuse against children and wives is more condemned then ever before. Sex offenders are getting caught. Think how long those catholic priests and other men with power were getting away with the acts? This could have went on for a least a thousand years. Prearranged marriages are no longer the norm in western culture. Atheists are allowed to challenge religion without being tried for heresy. No more witch trials.
Yes, overall there is absolutely no doubt that we are better off now than during the Salem witch trials. Nevertheless, new insidious threats have crept up. Many of these are existential threats. Human kind did not have the power to cause their own extinction before. Finally, there is harmful bar raising.
Global climate change, GMO-pandemic, nukes, and AI super-intelligence are four ways humans could cause their own extinction. In this way humans are worse off now then when the Puritans reigned.
"Worse still, the Cuban Missile crisis was only the most well-known case. The history of Soviet-US nuclear deterrence is full of close calls and dangerous mistakes. The actual probability has changed depending on international tensions, but it seems implausible that the chances would be much lower than one in 1000 per year."
Next, is detrimental bar raising. Generally speaking a standard can result in three possibilities overall good, neutral, or evil. That being said logically bar raising can either be good, neutral, or evil. As per Tom Nichols there is many good bar raising. Being able to eat fresh produce in winter. Cars are more reliable and many more.
Then, there is neutral bar raising, This is the most difficult to detect because it is evenly balanced, but in theory it is as least possible. Parking meters would be an example. I'm not sure if they serve a useful place in society. Organic foods, might be good, they might be bad. I know I'm not paying extra money for a dubious increase in quality. See quackwatch.org.
"Nevertheless, if you want to pay extra for your food, the U.S. Government will help you do so. Violators of the rules can be fined up to $10,000 per violation. But organic "certification," no matter what the rules, will not protect consumers. Foods certified as "organic" will neither be safer nor more nutritious than "regular" foods. Nor is there any logical reason to conclude that they have any special disease-curing properties. They will just cost more and may lessen public confidence in the safety of "ordinary" foods. Instead of legitimizing health nonsense, our government should do more to attack its spread."
The above could easily fit into the third category of evil bar raising. A more blatant example is physical appearance for females. Forcing higher beauty standards can lead to increased rates of depression and suicide. Read the book Cinderella ate my Daughter. Cars being more reliable can mean employers expect employees to come to work in more hazardous conditions. Automation can raise the bar for human employees forcing them to work faster and harder for less pay. Ditto for outsourcing.
In conclusion, the world is overall a better place. Yet, I don't fear the world becoming a worse place as in not getting fresh produce in winter. Instead, I fear existential threats like Nuclear war, Climate change, GMO-pandemics, and AI super intelligence as well as immoral bar raising. I don't fear snow, I am afraid of my employer's lack of fear of snow.
Sources.
https://www.popsci.com/article/science/five-biggest-threats-human-existence
https://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/organic.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/23/books/review/Paul-t.html
The car comment is an interesting point, and you're completely correct there. I'm a self-confessed "car guy," love to drive and tinker. I know many people who complain because their car needs a very expensive repair. I see it as part of a trend though - instead of regularly needing to put $500/year into their older car, they now have a 1% chance of needing to put $5000 into it once every 5 years. That's a situation that's much, much better for almost everyone, but the "horror stories" are worse than they were before, and that's what gets everyone's attention.
ReplyDeleteIt wasn't that long ago that a car getting to 100K miles was an accomplishment.
On the pacifist front, I also agree with your comments but with more of an asterisk - we seem to be getting more insular than before (I don't know if that's accurate though); a surprisingly large number of Americans are fine with things like the US presence in Afghanistan or Syria without really knowing or what's going on there, since we're not technically at war or anything, and no American civilians are involved.
In my neck of the woods we often see people driving with no lights on at dusk or even after dark. Also so many more "fadoodles" an old word for one head light out. We think the no lights thing is because many cars now have the lights automatically turn on and when people drive a different car or the automatic thingie fails they have lost the ability to turn on their own headlights manually. The increase in fadoodles which might be a local thing is because people have to save up to get their headlights fixed because that is more expensive now. The cops seem to understand this and give people a bit of time to get the headlight fixed these days. Speaking of manual most people drove stick back in the day. It was very hard to find used car with a manual transmission that hadn't been broken in very sloppily. When someone ran a red light and totalled my car I was surprised to be able to snag a used car with stick that works great. Hardly anyone can drive stick now so I guess the ones that do know what they are doing. We won't talk about the electric windows though. Grrr.
ReplyDeleteRichard Stanford,
ReplyDeleteI agree on cars, and re: the disproportional effect of errant "horror stories". The Internet obviously amplifies edge case horror stories of all kinds. It's an intrinsic aberration of large networks, or any loud open microphone. Really, it's pretty much the same dynamic as "single issue politics", no? People who feel strongly about a single issue harness their disproportional zeal to exert disproportional pressure (aka "create awareness")
This avenue has always been an important, though messy, bulwark of democracy, functioning as a check on the tyranny of the majority. But the Internet super-empowers it (amplifying the complaint volume while also empowering coalition-building). This also underpins the outrage/shunning/crawl-up-and-die phenom. After super-enhancing our networking, our future may be doomed to mercilessly messy (and ever-accelerating) single-issue furors. I can't really see a way out.
As for pacifism, very good point. A pacifist wants to blanketly avoid force, even when necessary, or defensive....to the nth degree. So perhaps this has gone the opposite of how I thought. There are even LESS pacifists now...it's not even really a thing (unless you're, like, Mennonite). If there seem to be fewer out-and-out hawks, that may represent not some philosophical shift but simply the ignorance and ennui you've pointed out. I.e. most of us would tell a pollster we're "for peace", but we're pretty okay with (however distantly/tepidly) whatever military action the talking heads on our side advocate. "Whatever..."
"But while a consensus of experts is a compelling thing, usually best deferred to (I'm talking to you, climate change deniers and anti-vaxxers), the problem is that individual experts disagree. All the time. Whatever you think, there's a bona fide expert to back you up. And even consensus shifts around aimlessly (saturated fat was helping us, then killing us, then helping us again, then killing us again). So my expertise doesn't make me right, nor you wrong. If you don't like my favorite taco shack, that's perfectly ok." Jim Leff
ReplyDeleteIndividual experts disagree, but the magnitude of disagreement is small compared to say an expert and a layman. Let's take Abiogenesis. There are seven hypothesis that all support the theory of Abiogenesis, yet all are mutual exclusive. Experts will disagree on which version of Abiogenesis is best. Yet, all agree that Abiogenesis is a much better theory than creationism for the origin of life. Now take a layman versus an expert and the layman may think that the Earth is flat, 6,000 years old, and a supernatural being is responsible for the origin of life. Meanwhile, the expert sticks to his/her version of Abiogenesis. This is a 750,000 times bigger level of disagreement, and that's just the age of the Earth.
Experts might disagree on a few points, say a 20% variance or margin of error. Layman might disagree by a million percent or even more. Furthermore, I am extremely skeptical of this claim you made. "Whatever you think, there's a bona fide expert to back you up." Leff
I think you are flat out incorrect in the above sentence. I do not think there are any experts that will backup the claim that the Earth is flat nor that the Earth is 6,000 years old, nor that God was responsible for the origin of life, nor evolution is false and creationism is true, that climate change is a hoax, that vaccines cause autism, intelligent aliens landed on Earth, nor smoking cigarettes are safe. You can find all sorts of fake experts, a favorite tactic of propagandists. Yet, do not conflate fake with bona fide experts. Remember the acronym flicc when dealing with science denial. Fake experts, logical fallacies, impossible expectations, cherry picking, and conspiracy theories I know its a youtube but it is from a prestigious university.
Of all the above intelligent aliens is the most likely due to humans possibly having a Martian origin and thus humans are intelligent aliens on Earth. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
https://www.livescience.com/13363-7-theories-origin-life.htmlhttps://thecreationclub.com/the-huge-difference-between-6000-and-4-5-billion/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXA777yUndQ
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ReplyDeleteIndividual experts disagree, but the magnitude of disagreement is small compared to say an expert and a layman.
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Only if you consider the full range of layman opinions, including the long tail of demented idiocy. But it doesn't invalidate my point that the problem with "defer to experts!" is that experts are all over the map on most things.
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"Whatever you think, there's a bona fide expert to back you up." Leff
I think you are flat out incorrect in the above sentence.
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Again, my tacit assumption was a disregard for sheer idiocy. I'm pretty sure no one imagined I'm claiming an expert would corroborate that grapefruit juice grants eternal life. My writing is logy enough without loading it up with every possible disclaimer.
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Of all the above intelligent aliens is the most likely due to humans possibly having a Martian origin and thus humans are intelligent aliens on Earth. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
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I didn't have time to scan your links, but no argument from me on this one. And it's a timely thought, given the breakthrough discoveries of ancient aquifer by the late, lamented Opportunity Rover.
"I'm pretty sure no one imagined I'm claiming an expert would corroborate that grapefruit juice grants eternal life." Leff
ReplyDeleteThanks made me laugh out loud about the grapefruit juice granting eternal life. I can be somewhat literal minded. :)
As for cars, they are more difficult to repair in someways, more electronic circuits. Cars engines used to be much bigger, you could stand inside a car and repair the car. Now everything is compact, so only a skilled mechanic/dealership can repair. This is very similar to an Adam ruins everything about the tech industry and how you need to take your electronic device to an authorized dealer due to tech companies exploiting intellectual property laws. See the below youtube video.
Below is a link with ten ways technology is making your life worse from a least bias source. The point is technology is a double edge sword. People who complain that everything is turning for the worse are just as guilty as people who claim everything is getting better.
As for pacifism, I felt a lot of negative feelings over the Iraq war. One of my college professors said "we were there for the oil." I decided that I would try to earn as little money as possible, so I would pay as little federal tax that would pay for military action against Iraq. I am beginning to regret that decision.
I am mostly pacifistic, in the sense that violence should only be used as an option of last resort. I felt our nation did not attempt enough other options to justify violence. For example, a campaign to reduce oil usage hitting the middle east in the pocket as opposed to drone strikes. My way of protesting the war was to be an early adapter of CFL and LED light bulbs thus reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
Sources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD099sPTKgo
https://listverse.com/2016/12/11/10-ways-technology-is-changing-you-for-the-worse/
Very clever comment from Tom Nichols:
ReplyDeleteCars just working is a huge change, to the point where "car trouble" is almost always recognized now as a lie. :)