Monday, February 9, 2026

Prediction

A prediction for the end of the decade, and I think it's dead-on.

When Democrats take power after the Republicans are trounced and repudiated (if that sounds unlikely, you haven't been watching polling and special elections), they must seek Republican support as they restore institutions, treaties, alliances, norms, etc.

It won't be hard to get, because most of them quietly value that stuff, anyway, and they'll have incentive to try to look reasonable.

Anything not restored in a bipartisan way will be cemented as a partisan juggling ball, and be wiped clear again whenever Republicans return to power. At which point everything will have broken irredeemably, and no American alliance or treaty will ever be taken seriously to the end of Time.

The problem is that the next Democratic administration—likely elected via a very clear mandate—will make the classic mistake of imagining permanent rule. And so progressives will scream their heads off if the administration invites even a whiff of Republican participation.

So we're basically screwed.

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