Repeating Lessons

"We grow through investigation, and to investigate we need experience. We tend to repeat what we have not understood." -- Sri Nisargadatta Maharaj, from "I Am That"

By the way, Buddhists love the movie Groundhog Day.

Damn Lies Via Statistics

Statistics don't have to lie. Merely reporting on statistics offers more than enough prospects for lying - or, at least, spinning a story to the reporter's preconceived bias. It's just a matter of choosing one end or the other of the telescope to view through.

Consider, for example, a story from today's Politico titled "237 millionaires in Congress." The scandalized writer notes that

"Two-hundred-and-thirty-seven members of Congress are millionaires. That’s 44 percent of the body – compared to about 1 percent of Americans overall."

This might strike you as a telling bit of news. You may even snort derisively at the comparison to "Americans overall", if you see the world as the reporter does.

But if you'll think about it, the real story here is that in an era where a kid five years out of law school pulls in $250K/year, where a million bucks buys no better than a studio apartment in a marginal Manhattan nabe, and where a modestly successful small businessman can easily be worth well over $1M, it's remarkable that over 50% of Congressmen - who've attained the very height of power and achievement - are not millionaires. More than half of Congress can't afford a decent two bedroom NYC apartment?!?

Always try flipping the telescope when a journalist tries to make a point via statistics!

My Big Secret

I actually have surprisingly low tolerance for hot spicy food.

But I would never patronize any restaurant that tones down dishes to my tolerance level!

Mainstream Media Timidness

The ever insightful (and hilarious) Fake Steve Jobs blog has done a great job of pinpointing the self-inflicted wound hastening the decline of mainstream media. Here's the money quote:

"As for the newspapers: Faced with their own demise, fearful of losing even more advertising, newspapers have made the huge mistake of becoming ever more timid, more cautious, more in bed with the companies they cover.

"It's the exact opposite of what they should be doing. The truth is, if newspapers want to survive they should go back to doing what they started out doing -- muckraking, stirring the shit, calling bullshit."

Read the entry for an egregious example.

Trauma on the Upper East Side

So I walk into Eli Zabar's store at Third Avenue and 80th Street, where I spot lots of well-chosen, lesser-known brands seldom seen all together in the same store. Nice!

I buy a small bag of granola, a bottle of Honest Tea, and a tiny takeout container I've filled with a few errant tidbits from the salad bar - a couple pieces of broccoli, a small wedge of sweet potato, and a barbecued chicken leg.

The cashier adds it all up and announces a total of $25. I freeze for a moment, dumbfounded, and ask her to repeat the number. She does. Struggling  to control my trembling hands, I can't seem to fish the bills from my wallet. I ask the cashier to be patient, as I'm in shock. She doesn't even grin. 

I'm reminded once again that Manhattan is not a place for someone who's sold off a measly one single company to a major corporation.

The chicken leg (barbecued) was surprisingly good, though...

SIGA: The Time is Now

I first tipped you to SIGA, a tiny pharmaceutical company, in June, 2008, when its stock price was $2.92. After hitting a high of $8.88 a couple months ago, it's recently been in a fade, currently down to $6.20. Investors are awaiting announcement of a government contract to buy a billion dollars or so worth of its smallpox medicine, ST-246, which seems to work flawlessly and with no side effects. The contract was due to be announced "as soon as September", and investors are currently in a froth, because - surprise! - the governmental bureaucracy has acted less than promptly. So it's a great bargain right now. And there are indications that the announcement will come in the next week.

Also...there may also be announcement of an enormous grant to fund development of SIGA's broad spectrum anti-viral.

Also...we haven't heard much news for a while about SIGA's very promising drug for dengue fever, feared to be the next big pandemic. We're due for a report.

Also...while the government can buy ST-246 (the smallpox drug) on a fast-track basis, prior to FDA approval, that approval is due sometime in 2010 - at which point any country, company, or individual concerned with bioterrorism can (and likely will) order the drug.

Also...the drug has a shelf life of two years. So this is an annuity.

But back to that imminent contract. SIGA has a market cap of 240M, and 38M shares outstanding. A $1B contract will explode this stock. And while there are no sure things in this life - you can't even be sure you'll live to finish reading this sentence - I've been following this company extremely closely for four years, and I can tell you it's as close to certain as investing and life can get*. The contract may not be announced this week, but it will in a few weeks at the latest.

So if you buy a few hundred dollars worth of SIGA on Monday (hurry up, it won't stay this low for long!), you'll have yourself a merry little Christmas indeed. Sell at $15, because the price will drift down after the pop, as beleaguered long term investors take profit. Or else hold on for a full year to enjoy long term capital gain taxation on your profit...and benefit from the cascade of good news expected for this company. SIGA will almost certainly be acquired by big pharma in a year or two, but it won't come cheap (Ronald Pereleman is a major investor). I'm predicting $30-40.

Warning: my next posting on SIGA will be a gloat....

* - a few quick data points among many: the funds are already allocated, the contract was offered via competitive RFP but ST-246 is the only possible contender, and SIGA has been working closely with (and been funded by) the relevant agency, BARDA, for years, and its CEO is on the board of the related National Biodefense Science Board. Furthermore, SIGA has been massively upgrading security at their facility (a requirement of the RFP), and a few weeks ago put out a hiring notice for a "experienced project manager for a federally funded procurement contract".

Counter-Insurgency Warfare Tipping Point

In deciding whether to commit a large number of troops to Afghanistan, President Obama must weigh two prospects. The first is that the Army is correct in insisting that it's learned to fight counter-insurgencies, and that it can rebuild Afghanistan, shape public opinion there, and make things work out smoothly if it just has 40,000 more troops. The second prospect is that this is mere hubris, and no quantity of troops can "fix" Afghanistan.

To be sure, when the military started its adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, it knew embarrassingly little about counterinsurgencies. Hence all the failure and carnage. But a new crop of military planners, oriented less toward shock-and-awe and more toward psychological and political subtleties, has moved into power. This post-Petraeus generation believes it's figured out how to put Humpty back together again once he's been shattered by our copious firepower (for more on this, listen to a fascinating interview with Washington Post reporter Greg Jaffe on Fresh Air, or read his book, "The Fourth Star: Four Generals and the Epic Struggle for the Future of the United States Army").

I'm against the surge, but not because I doubt that the Army has "hacked" counterinsurgency warfare. The thing is, if it has, I don't want to know it. And I don't want the generals to know it. And I don't want the world to know it. Why? Because I don't want the Huckabee administration or the Palin administration (and others going forward) to have nation-building in its pocket as a proven viable option. Much as I wish we'd never exploded those atomic bombs, this is a Pandora's Box that should remain shut for as long as possible. Because if we can make this sort of thing work, we will see a resurrection of Neo-Conservatism, with its American exceptionalism and kookie utopian meddling...and it will be the death of us.

The Dead Kenny Gs

You've heard of The Dead Kennedys. Now meet....The Dead Kenny Gs.

Questions

I realize this is a bit blogish, but some questions have been consuming me.

Why don't people visit carwashes on rainy days?

When drivers reach for something with their non-steering hand, why does it make passengers more uptight if they do so sloppily and lengthily (i.e. directing most attention to the road) than if they do so swiftly and efficiently (i.e. taking attention off the road)?

Why do even the most sophisticated observers tend to rate local things only locally (e.g. if a Rembrandt were born in Akron, he'd be deemed, even by local experts, "an excellent Akron artist")?

Why do people wait right up next to the baggage carousel even when their bags are not imminent, blocking the way for those whose suitcases are approaching?

How (Perennially) Fat People Diet: Part 8: Hapless Helplessness

In part 1, I described how lots of (perpetually) overweight people approach (perpetual) dieting. We've been going down the list and finding the mistakes (read all previous entries in reverse order). Now we're up to this:

Hapless Helplessness
In spite of relative low daily calorie counts, and the feeling of hardly eating anything (with much of the day spent fasting), the weight never budges. Cholesterol, and perhaps blood sugar and pressure, remain high. There must be a hormonal or metabolic problem; I diet and diet, yet the weight never comes off. There must be something uniquely screwy about my system that keeps me from losing weight. Since my effort isn't rewarded, I eventually come to make less and less effort.

First of all, your daily calorie count isn't so low. Track it for a week and see! Your exceptions - your special occasions, errant binges, and drabs of crappy food gulped down because you're busy, in a hurry, and desperate to put something in your stomach - add up. Also, huge portions of lo-cal foods (eaten because you've literally been starving) are not very lo-cal.

As for the fasting, previous installments have helped explain why food deprivation is self-defeating. Your body is not seeking virtuous abstention. It's seeking a pattern of regular, balanced, healthful meals. Gorging creates problems. Fasting creates problems. The solution is to eat a consistent and healthful diet!

Just about everything I've written so far has a basis in science, but here's something I've discovered for myself: the more you engage in this massively unhealthful war against the body, the more afflictions of obesity will befall you even if you're not so overweight. Over the past twenty years, I've rarely been more than 12% overweight, and obesity starts over 20%. Yet I've had high cholesterol, high blood sugar, high blood pressure, fallen arches, sleep apnea - the full basket of conditions comprising Metabolic syndrome - normally the fate of obese people. My suspicion is that the more you battle your body with the sort of self-defeating patterns we've been looking at, the more your body falls prey to the ills of the obese - even if you're just mildly overweight. Obesity may be the result, rather than the cause.

Hunger is a core part of our biology. Toying with it is not smart. There are unintended consequences. Best to use that hunger...to eat (again) regular, balanced, healthful meals. When in doubt, do the sane, natural thing! I did just that. I started feeding my body healthfully. I lost 40 pounds and all my symptoms went away (except the fallen arches....more on that later).

There is nothing uniquely screwy about your body. Nor is there anything unique about how you've been screwing with your body. Vast numbers of people do the same, and they're all fat. Stop "dieting", and feed yourself a healthy, balanced, consistent diet. Don't worry about the weight; if you eat right and exercise, it will take care of itself...very, very slowly! But you'll keep it off, because the regimen will feel too good to change.

To sum up: it's not a matter of eating as little as you can. It's a matter of eating as cleanly as you can, and with careful fat/protein/carb balance, and in moderate portions at frequent, regular intervals. You couldn't eat 3000 "clean" calories per day if you tried, so calorie counting is unnecessary (once you get your diet stabilized). You'll soon start to feel hungry at mealtimes, even in the morning. You will crave the right things as your body comes to expect them. And your metabolic fire will stoke, improving your digestion, health, and energy levels. Add consistent, non-punishing exercise, and you'll kiss your fat goodbye.