Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Buy Apple Quick!

On October 13, with Apple stock at $300, I predicted it would go to $400. And, for that matter, I called the iPad success back in January of last year when shares were $200.

Yesterday, Apple closed just short of $350. Today, it will take a beating as a result of Steve Job's medical leave announcement. And that means a bargain!

I'd very strongly suggest buying when the price drops this morning. Apple will still reach $400. The iPad remains underrated for all reasons mentioned in the links above. And Jobs will continue to offer input, his stand-in, C.O.O. Tim Cook, did great work during Jobs' two previous medical leaves, and the Jobs-created pipeline will take a few years to play out.

Really, swoop in and buy some early, when the price plummets. Today's selling will be entirely irrational.


Ghalib Suleiman said...

But all our money is in SIGA...

Jim Leff said...

Ha! Well...too late. Those who didn't buy at the bell missed the dip.

Interesting fallacy. Negative news (as this surely is) MUST affect the price, even if only temporarily. But not all negatives are really negatives.

What I was anticipating was over-reaction. And over-react the market did, dropping the price dramatically in pre-hours trading. Now, saner trading is bringing the price back up.

But even if the market had priced this in more modestly, as, say, a 1% or .1% dip, it STILL would have been inappropriate, because even though this is undoubtedly bad news for Apple and its investors, the stock will nonetheless go to $400 based on current factors.

So you can't say "this news doesn't matter". Yet there is also literally no negative stock impact that would make sense. Two mutually exclusive presumptions, both impossible to argue against.

Well, as they say: one mark of intelligence is the ability to tolerate paradox....

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