Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Flogging SIGA Once More

You may have missed the chance for a nearly sure-fire quintupling when I recommended SIGA at $2.92 , for a tripling when I wrote about it at $4.92, and for a better-than-doubling when I mentioned it again here at $6.28. This morning the stock price touched $7, on news that Ron Perelman had executed options to buy millions more shares (he already owned something like 15% of the company...and he's no fool). But there's still time to get in on doubling.

As I explained here, SIGA's smallpox drug, ST-246, is the only viable candidate for a mega lucrative BARDA contract to be awarded this fall, which will make this, easily, a $15/share company (possibly $20). BARDA would just hand the money to SIGA right now, but being a government agency, protocol must be followed. BARDA has already signalled its expectation of buying this drug in June 2008; see page 2 of this PDF file, listing ST-246 as a done-deal part of their toolkit. Another governmental agency, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, has signalled similar intentions with this slide (though it's not on DTRA's own site, so I can't be sure it wasn't faked).

Beyond this one single contract will almost certainly be other contracts with other agencies and with other governments (India, Israel, and France come to mind). Plus there's SIGA's breath-taking pipeline of antivirals (outlined in the links above). But those things are speculative. What seems nearly for sure is $15.

I'm not trying to "sell" this stock. I don't need to. Any blippy boost from new investors would be strictly marginal in the long term. I'm trying to reward Slog readers with an astounding opportunity during tough economic times.

Note: this entry has been updated with a new link to and clarification about the image files tipping BARDA's hat to SIGA.

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