Ukraine/Taiwan Connection?

A quick break before we return to El Salvador.


The only way Putin's adventure with Ukraine makes a lick of sense is if he's orchestrating a joint mission with China, which would invade Taiwan simultaneously. That would make a huge, bold anti-US statement and usher in a new phase of world history. That seems very Putinesque.

I've been hesitant to go public with this opinion, because, first, what the hell do I know. This is very far from any of my areas of expertise. An experienced defense analyst might easily point out technical reasons why it's not feasible. So this may be nothing more than random ignorance. So take it with a grain of salt.

However I follow a bunch of very smart and diverse national security analysts (mostly as part of the mix of my Twitter Must-Read List "of centrists, moderate Dems, and anti-Trump Republicans + generally smart not-very-partisan people"). Articulate and non-partisan Russia experts like Michael McFaul (former ambassador), John Sipher (former CIA Russian station chief), John Schindler (former NSA), Tom Nichols (Russia expert at Navy War College), and Molly McKew (a well-respected itinerant expert/advisor/writer on military and security issues), along with international relations wisdom from Robert E Kelly, the famous "BBC dad" (I came for the antics, but stayed for his superb analysis on N Korea and beyond).

I've been reading them for a long time now, and I'm following them on recent events, and while none pushes this prediction, they're all perplexed about Putin's thinking. He appears to have cornered himself. This all strengthens NATO. He's in danger of having his pipeline canceled in Germany (remember: natural gas is pretty much his only resource). And the last thing his people (who aren't over WWII yet) want is another Afghanistan-style insurgent slog.

War makes no sense, and if this is strictly extortion, that doesn't make sense either, because, as he well knows, none of his asks are remotely possible (we won't block Ukraine or other sovereign nations from applying to NATO). By process of elimination, the only thing that makes sense is a two-headed move with China that has him so excited that he's willing to bear the consequences.

But, again, what do I know?