On March 2, Steve Jobs, who'd recently been reported to be near death, showed up on stage, spry and energetic, to introduce a sock-o new iPad. He revealed some unbelievable sales figures, and the update itself was so killer that Samsung delayed their Galaxy Tab launch so they can try to make it competitive in features and price.
Could you possibly ask for better? But Apple's stock, $350 just prior to the event, piddled up to just $354 later that day (it's since risen to $360, along with the overall market upturn). The lamented Jobs resurrected, sales targets exceeded, a boffo lead product, and competitors flummoxed: all this raised the stock a dab over 1%.
This is what happens when a stock's overbought. Expectations are so high they cannot possibly be exceeded. With hyperbolic success already priced in, there's nowhere to go but down. It's time to sell!
Meanwhile, SIGA just went over $15, an all-time high. If you own some, hold on. It's just getting started! If you don't own any, know that it will likely double again before the fat lady sings and Ron Perelman sells it out to big pharma (in a couple years).
Why all this fascination with investment? When I left Chowhound I was shocked to discover that no one remembered me as a writer. My only reputation was as a "web personality", which is not something I'm interested in trading on. So, to make a living, I turned to investment, and have more than doubled my savings since 2006 thanks to SIGA and some other investments. And I figured I'd share my strategies with you, faithful reader. If you find it boring, consider buying yourself a couple dozen shares of SIGA, so you can root along with me!
1 comment:
Thanks Jim. I’m a long-time SIGA investor and am excited by this long-awaited realization of our expectations. Just wanted to thank you for your constancy in reporting, and your steady-at-the-helm disposition to investing. If bystanders had listened to your advice on SIGA, they’d be doing well in it now. If AAPL owners listen to your caution, they may just walk away winners. Might leave a bit on the table, but be winners non-the-less. We could add that in the past AAPL has tanked significantly after big run-ups... just sayin...
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