Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Extreme Bargain Pricing on AAPL

I bought some Apple stock at $192, and more at $172. It's now scraping into the $140s, and I'm getting itchy to invest the rest of my loose change into yet more.

Standard caveats:

1. It may take a long while for the price to recover (but that's good; you need to hold for over a year to enjoy low long-term capital gains tax rates)

2. If China - for reasons smart or stupid - decides to severely restrict or end Apple's ability to conduct business there, I think the stock price might eventually recover some, but it will never again approach $230. This is a very unlikely risk (Apple employs 5M Chinese, pays China billions in tax, and to injure Apple would injure the US economy in which China's deeply invested), but China's regime is completely opaque, and that unpredictability creates its own risk (it might be argued that it's our unprecedented - albeit imperfect - business transparency that's fueled America's rise).

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