Friday, November 19, 2021

Stock Market Investment Updates

I bought a slew of Apple shares in Fall 2020 at $105 - $115. Once its price ($160 as I write this) plateaus, I'll sell (for a >45% gain) and await the next frothy crash to buy again, repeating my trusty method. This autonomous car story is absolutely nothing new, and the market will soon realize this and back off from its momentary excitement. But the crash will come when some new story of neglible worry ("Antennas! Bendy screens!") propogates and sends investors into needless panic. My sole legit worry is China. If the PRC for some reason decides it no longer likes Apple (e.g. wants to compete with it), it could do real and lasting damage.

You may have forgotten that I bought a ton of stock in SIGA, a company with a reliable, FDA-approved, VERY low side effect cure (not vaccine) for smallpox (including monkeypox, cowpox, vaccinia, and weaponized versions of the virus currently stockpiled by the countries evil enough to stockpile such things, e.g. us).

I first recommended it here in 2008, at $2.92/share, and it's currently in the mid $9s. I sold most of my holdings some time ago, but still own a bunch. If you bought shares, this wouldn't be a bad time to sell some. But maybe hold on to a few, because momentum finally appears to be building. See these links:
European Medicines Agency Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) Recommends Approval of Tecovirimat (SIGA's smallpox drug)

Terrorists will try to use smallpox as a biological weapon, according to Bill Gates

Maryland Department of Health confirms single case of monkeypox in a Maryland resident

SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s (SIGA) CEO Phillip Gomez on Q3 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

SIGA extends gains amid lab incident involving smallpox vials
That last link is pretty fluffy, but, ironically, it's the one currently moving the market, which behaves like a frazzled meth-head. Beyond fluffy fluff, tectonic movement seems to be building, and I expect at least a couple of foreign orders, renewal/extension of their contract with the US government, new formulations, and/or more attention on cowpox, monkeypox, and vaccinia in the coming year or two. That said, if it ever ekes beyond $15, I'm out. This is a one-drug wonder, whose product will be bought only by nerdy gov counterterrorism agencies. SIGA will never do brisk business ala Merck or Pfizer. It's not that scenario.

I still haven't pulled the trigger on buying more PRKR shares. It's cheap enough now, but I found the following in Qualcomm's most recent 10K report, referring to their ongoing patent dispute:
ParkerVision has subsequently reduced the number of patents asserted to three. The asserted patents are now expired, and injunctive relief is no longer available.
This has gone undisclosed, to my knowledge, by Parkervision, and unreported by the press. It makes me wonder what else is undisclosed. Their outcome of trial may not affect my investment strategy, which involves selling before the trial even begins, but the calculus has shaken in ways I don't understand, so I'll wait on the sidelines for now. If you bought, it seems likely that one of the imminent big trials will actually happen (no idea how the decision will go), and you should get profit when at least some of the people who liked PRKR before return to try to cash in.

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