SIGA Follow-Up Thoughts

It’s beginning to look like the monkeypox outbreak may (or may not) be a limited edge-case sort of situation. If it can be quickly contained, SIGA's stock will not hold anywhere near its current $15.

It could still rise some Monday morning due to pent-up exuberance, but at some point the hammer (i.e. the big $$$) will forcefully descend, and long-suffering SIGA investors who didn't get out will find themselves once again becalmed amid single digits.

If, however, this turns out to be a new mutation, and thus an ongoing and expanding threat, then selling at this point would be a horrible move. SIGA's rise over the past few days has been enjoyable but by no means meteoric. I'd describe it as restrained. It has much higher to go if this turns out to be a serious and burgeoning outbreak.

The good news is that even if they do contain it quickly, SIGA should benefit from its greatly enhanced visibility (no one even knew there WAS a smallpox cure until this week!). But in that event, I'd still have preferred to have taken my profit and bought a bunch of AAPL, TXG, and CRIS.

If you bought SIGA eons ago, and are fed up, and it wouldn't destroy you to watch it shoot up like crazy after you've sold, here's my advice: create a limit sell order right now for $14.50 or $15. A bit lower if you're even more fed up.

Or, at very least, watch the action closely Monday morning, poised to sell. But bear in mind that even if it rockets upon market opening (I suspect it won't), the hammer might be poised to drop at any moment, and, once it does, you will be the zillionth person in line to get your sell order processed. Staying in front of things with a limit sell order (which, alas, risks losing out) is your best hope for locking in a price in the teens if this thing drops. Once fate shows its cards, it will be far too late to make a move, even if your finger's on the button.

It depends how bad you need the money. If you bought a few shares on a lark, and you're not straining to make a mortgage payment, let it ride. But don't holler at me if it quickly falls back to $7 for another bunch of years.