Stock Mutterings

Sorry for the lack of links to my previous write-ups on these topics. The Slog's search box is your friend!


I've never felt more morbidly ashamed than the last two days spent feasting my eyes on the news of an incipient monkeypox crisis. It's been, perversely, fantastic for my shares of SIGA, a company I invested in (at circa $2.50) in a previous century, which has developed, approved, and begun selling a highly-effective anti-viral (not a vaccine) for smallpox and other poxes (the EU approved it for monkeypox). My first thought is that I don't like being in a position to profit from misfortune. But my second thought is that I helped bring a drug to market that will make this impending crisis far less harmful. But I'm trying to keep my delight levels duly low.

So Apple's falling back down again. Once it bottoms out (the lower the better!), buy it. Even if you're scared it might go lower. Even if it goes lower (you needn’t nail the nadir). Even if analysts predict further drop (analysts always predict further dropping when a stock drops and further rising when it rises; that's their clever little trick). Even if the market's falling apart and you imagine no bright day will ever come. That's the suppressive perspective that keeps people irrationally unable to spot the opportunity of fantastic value at firesale prices. One day AAPL will drop and fail to ever snap back, but you will not lose all your money. Apple will not go to zero. They have enough cash on hand to stop making iPhones and iPads and Macs and just go buy Goldman Sachs and Starbucks....and still have $17B leftover in case they want to start an airline or whatever.

I bought TXG at $50, where it was severely undervalued, and it rose to $200. Now it's back to $50, and nothing fundamental has changed. This isn't some speculative play; they are doing substantial business, and are well-known as a serious player in their field. All that said, TXG is nowhere near the solidity of Apple. But Apple doesn't have the potential of quadrupling (at least not anytime soon).

Still more undervalued, and still less solid, CRIS shouldn't be priced anywhere near its current 75¢. The only explanation is "market's down and biotechs are really down". That's not a substantive rationale (note that there were some trivial testing issues which might have justified a 5-10% haircut). If you have a few bucks lying around you'd like to use to take a speculative flyer (and wouldn't mind losing all, because, again, this is NOT Apple, and it COULD go to zero), CRIS would be a fine choice. Even if its peak of $15.60 (where I should have sold) was fluffy, the stock is pretty clearly worth seven-ish, which makes it a hell of an enticing bargain here. Though I could be wrong. Like with Parker.

I'd be surprised if Parker ever revives. I can't be angry at Andrew Tobias for recomending it; he's right more often than than he's wrong. But I still haven't sold. Maybe if I finally sell my SIGA shares and need to take a loss to offset the gain for tax purposes....

To review:

AAPL at $138 offers an extremely tempting opportunity for a 45% gain at absurdly low risk (by "risk", I mean the chance of losing money). That's an extraordinary proposition, and I can't understand why everyone wouldn't jump at it. The stock may dip lower before it turns around, but not even the gloomiest bear would imagine it won't eventually reach $200. It's just a matter of time (hopefully it will happen about a year from now, making it a long term capital gain!).

TXG offers a very good opportunity for a 4x gain without tons of risk...though it might take a while (remember: patience is the little guy's investment super power).

Even a smidge of moderately positive news might elevate CRIS from the populous slurry of biotechs parked and awaiting grandeur. If so, a 10x gain would be pretty easy (the $7s aren’t exactly gangbuster territory). With bigger news, which I don't expect anytime soon, sky's potentially the limit.