Playing the Apple Cycle, Chapter Umpteen

Apple's stock price shot up in July upon announcement of their AI initiative ("Apple Intelligence"), which was expected to drive a massive rush of upgrades, as consumers scrambled to ensure their devices could run these catchy new features.

Two problems:

1. Apple Intelligence won't be so groundbreaking. We're all sick of Siri's miserable inadequacy, but the new Siri is expected to be incremental improvement, nothing radical, and the rest seems a bit servicey and milquetoast...at least for now.

2. iPhone 16 wasn't super alluring (and iPhone 15 pro can run Apple Intelligence), so unofficial initial reports say that sales have been "meh".

None of this is top-line news yet. Experts know this, so the smart money does, too (hence the 10% drop from its peak). But the mainstream - and thirsty clickbait media - haven't quite processed these factors to realize that the expected profit surge (still somewhat priced in even now) likely won't happen in a tumultuous rush. So the general public hasn't been massively gloom-sprayed quite yet. And when that day comes (soon, I'd imagine), day traders will start shorting, and grandma will sell her shares (buy high, sell low!), stoking the familiar vicious circle.

All of which is good news! I sold my shares at $230, and would be very happy to buy anew at the next drop, which will be, as always, hyperbolic.

Long term, Apple Intelligence will improve, Siri will improve, and future devices will be tastier. So while owners of iPhone 13s may not be drooling over the new iPhone 16, at some point Siri frustration will inevitably push them into upgrading. There may be no furious stampede to the Apple Store, but Apple will absolutely pocket everyone's money in the end. So when its stock drops to $200 or below, a 20%+ gain should be easy for patient investors (patience is also rewarded by low taxation of long-term gains).


Per above, an eventual rebound to $237 is justified by what we know now. But new developments will add value. A new Mac Mini is to released next month that's intriguingly tiny and powerful and festooned with USB-C ports. Not as sexy as iPhones, but it could spur a genuine upgrade stampede (though we won't hear even unofficial stats until 2025, leaving plenty of time for gloomcasting in the meantime). And Apple will eventually create a lighter, cheaper version of Vision Pro, which transcends the severe limitations of desktop/laptop/table computing (I discussed those limitations here, though I never actually sprang for Vision Pro for reasons explained here).