Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Explaining Today's Political Mysteries

I've watched news hosts all day expressing puzzlement over why Mitch McConnell (along with 100% of Senate Republicans) is supporting release of the whistleblower complaint...and (as if they're unrelated!) the administration allowing the testimony plus promising to release the Ukraine call transcript. MSNBC's Chris Hayes "wonders whether there's some strategy at play I can't see" (he makes $6M/year, by the way).

The normally thoughtful and earnest Adam Schiff claimed they're frightened by the "big club" of impeachment. Schiff's either lying or he's dumb as a rock. I'm honestly not sure which.

Here's how this will go down. It's exactly the trap Pelosi struggled to avoid:
  • The whistleblower will testify and it will be horrific.
  • The Ukraine call transcript will be released and it will be horrific.
  • The House will impeach.
  • The Senate will acquit.
  • The way will be cleared for 2020 with Dems having shot their wad and collapsed into an impotent heap.
  • Incensed Republican voters (including suburbanites who don't love Trump, wear MAGA hats, or dream of torturing brown children) will FLOCK to the polls in 2020, energized by what seems to be an attempt to procedurally overturn their 2016 electoral will.
  • Democrats, demoralized, splintered, and still repelling moderates by raving about late term abortions, gun seizures, slavery reparations, and trillions in new spending, lose the election.
Trump and McConnell want to complete this cycle ASAP, giving themselves a nice clean environment for the election. Facilitate the impeachment, recognizing that many/most Dem voters are unaware that an impeached president faces NO CONSEQUENCES, so, without Senate conviction post-impeachment, Trump's sole punishment would be shame....to which he's psychologically immune. Some Dems do understand the process, yet still demand impeachment because emotions.

So it will happen, it will fail, and he will win. Enjoy.


Richard Stanford said...

You're not wrong. But at some point isn't the process also important?

Congress was set up to be an equal branch of government, part of the system of a checks-and-balances that were designed to keep our country functioning. Many people decry McConnell's actions of preemptively deferring to the Executive literally stating that he wants to ensure that the Senate doesn't do something that the President doesn't want done. If the House doesn't move forward with their constitutional obligation of impeachment, if they feel that they have cause to do so, because they think they know that the Senate would vote on political lines, isn't that exactly the same thing?

Either we have faith in the process, that at some point people will choose country over party, or we don't. If we have faith then we need to continue to go through the motions. If we don't, then what's the alternative? I for one would prefer not to see this end up in a constitutional crisis or citizen's uprising if we can avoid it.

James Leff said...

Well, enjoy the fucking process.

Steve said...

It matters when you bring something up for a vote. That's why a lot of legislation gets killed before it can even be put up for a vote. Not that the opposition can't defeat the vote; they don't want to go on the record.

James Leff said...

His defenders and enablers have already crossed the rubicon. Do you really see anyone measuring their public support of him the least bit with an eye toward future perceptions?

Unknown said...

I am just explaining why they don't want to go on record. They did for health care, and there was an enormous turnover in the House. The threat of removing Trump from office should not cause Republicans to lose sleep, but losing a majority in the Senate should.

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