Saturday, March 19, 2022

Partial Restoration

Well, we can't bring back Dom DeMarco or Chowhound, but Limster happens to have six more mugs of the type I broke, and offered me one. I just need to get to England to pick it up!

Road trip!!!


Anonymous said...

Maybe it happened on purpose (or you did it on purpose) for all these exciting things to happen ??

James Leff said...

"On purpose" is a very curious concept. It's one of those things (like "framing") that feels intimately familiar to everyone, but we can't ever really put our finger on it.

Everything's on purpose! Nothing's on purpose! Because there's no way to draw that distinction that makes any sense!

One thing I'm sure of: any notion of an over-arching heroic narrative to any of our lives or this world stems from the ditziest superficial layer of thought. It's super-empty, though fun to play around with. You can, however, can get stuck there, creating needless pain. Like this:

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Amen and all that. By the way (assuming we are back on earth now), did the cup break around the time PRKR nosedived to 25 cents or less ? That Friday March 11 HedgeAppleJoe wrote "massive overreaction" and on Monday he further speculated "I smell settlement in the works". link here:

James Leff said...


I don't claim to understand the PRKR situation completely. I know the news was bad, and I trust Andrew Tobias (the only guy I know who's not on the make) that it's likely worth hanging onto nonetheless. If you didn't buy a ton before, might be worth buying more here if you have an appetite for risk. There are a number of reasons for it to have collapsed since this sink (e.g. can't pay lawyers with stock anymore). But it hasn't yet. And that's something. Someone somewhere somehow is pedaling strongly, and I can only imagine it's because they still like the possible upside.

The market has disliked PRKR (for understandable reasons), and that surely set up conditions for massive overreaction to bona fide bad news.

That said, I am very far, at this point, from really assessing their prospects. I'm just huddled into a refusal-to-sell stance of tremulous defiance.

James Leff said...

Do bear in mind that the risk attendant to a stock with a very real possibility of going to zero is way way way way higher than the risk of a stock that might drop X%. We feel like we intuitively understand this, but in real world few of us have much experience with a complete and utter implosion, so it's not well-integrated into our sense memory.

This, in fact, is my main argument for buying Apple dips. One day an Apple dip will fail, long term, to spring back. But it's simply not going to death plunge to zero in a straight-line, so downside risk is limited.

PRKR not so much.

Anonymous said...

I was so excited, and you make it so heartbreakingly mundane, Jim. Thanks anyway. Life is a slog, I need a cup of tea..

James Leff said...

Excited about PRKR? Oh, no! Sorry! I hope I didn't over-stoke you on its prospects. I didn't say it was a sure-thing rocket blazing glory. I just thought I saw an under-appreciated opportunity.

And I think it might remain just that. I'd be mildly surprised if we didn't make some profit, and I'm in no way prepared to write it off here entirely.

Though, as I've said at every step, "who knows?"

I never understood Rumsfeld unknown knowns and unknown shtick, but I never assumed I'd accounted for all factors.

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