Sunday, September 25, 2011

SIGA: Feeling a Bit Brighter

Well, investment expert Andrew Tobias has bought more SIGA. I'm not sure how much of a resonance chamber this is (i.e. my optimism may fuel his buying, which in turn fuels my optimism), but it's hard not to be heartened when one of the nation's smartest investors (and most respected financial gurus...not to mention best writers) understands the potential...while appropriately cautioning that these sorts of investments are only for money one can afford to lose.

SIGA's market cap has sunk below the company's share of a signed governmental contract (funding for which is pre-allocated), and totally fails to price in foreign contracts, alternative formulations and applications, much less the pipeline of in-development drugs. So it's hard not to deem their stock a steal (along with nearly the entire biotech market, currently offering gigantic bargains). The stock price is already starting to bounce back from the lawsuit verdict, and even if appeal upholds their order to share half of net profit, half of "billions and billions" is still billions. So patient investors may have the last laugh yet.

It will take a year or two before we start feeling smug again, however. But it was going to take that long, anyway, to finish off the FDA odds/ends that will lead to foreign orders and the rest. We were always destined for a lull here.

P.S. - I'm glad I didn't hedge with SIGA's opponent in the lawsuit. Naturally, all the retail investors got stomped in the stampede for the exits, and now face a much longer - and less assured - wait than we do (because we're splitting only net profit after all expenses, and SIGA keeps the first $ it's hard to imagine PIP's management giving stockholders more than a taste of this annuity when it arrives).

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